There are two problems with this question.
1.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and
2.
It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100%
fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If
one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey
wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual
deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking
about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One
is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
·
19 more require hospitalization.
·
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of
their lives.
·
10 will have permanent lung damage.
·
3 will have strokes.
·
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness
and loss of coordination.
·
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive
function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s
only 1% fatal!” becomes:
·
3,282,000 people dead.
·
62,358,000 hospitalized.
·
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
·
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
·
9,846,000 people with strokes.
·
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
·
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep
going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to
save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The
US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
